Patriot Games

GNG had more Heberts than York could handle.

Patriot Games

In the Game of the Day, GNG used a 21-5 run to turn a 5 point deficit into an 11 point lead at the half. From there, it was the Aidan Hebert show. He scored 18 of his game-high 24 in the second half to give GNG a 71-57 win over York and move them into 3rd place in a top-heavy A South. Nate Hebert added 20.

But, if you look at the Tournament Odds, they are unlikely to stay there. The Model projects they move up to at least the 2-seed and potentially all the way to the top.

As for York, the loss ends their quest for the 1 seed in B South. That's gone now. They could drop down into the 4/5 game, although that's a real worst-case scenario. They're now 64.6% to finish with the 3 seed.

Up at Maranacook, the Black Bears were hosting undefeated Mount Blue. Maranacook led early (Keagan McClure has 18), but Mount Blue slowly pulled away in the second half behind Evans Sterling's 29.

That 29 is an important number, as he's now 4 points away from 1,000. My guess is he'll get there.


Kevin Rugabirwa led Portland with 18 in their win over SoPo...Poland's Damon Martin dropped 25 on Oak Hill. They were led by Eli Desmond's 26...Levi Laverdiere went off for 6 3s and 28 as Monmouth raced by NYA...Cape got 23 from Eli Smith to beat Leavitt by 4...Marshwood's Isabelle Tice had 22 as they blew out Noble...Oxford Hills' Ella Pelletier out-scored Windham 24-23...Izzy Morelli led GNG with 19 in a win over York...Dirigo out-lasted Boothbay in overtime. Aleiah Ward had 13 & 10, while Emily Woods added 15 and 8 steals.

The Tourney Odds are updated and the playoff picture is slowly growing clearer. So far:

120 teams have essentially punched their ticket.
11 teams are out.
133 have some work to do.

These punched tickets are not a mathematical clinch like you'd have in a system other than Heal Points. That would take an incredible amount of computing power to find every single remaining combination of results. How many possible combinations of results are there? A whole hell of a lot.

We'll use GNG as an example. They're currently 11-1 and it finds this range of final records. There's some where GNG runs the table and there's a handful where they only win one more game, but it couldn't find any where they lose their last 6. It could happen and that might be a scenario where they miss the tourney, but that's very, very unlikely.

Check out where your team is, what sort of seeding range you're looking, and who you might get in the tourney.

Tourney Odds
Will your team make the tournament?

We have another coaching milestone, as Waynflete's Rich Henry racked up his 250th W.

Elsa Daulerio, a Mt. Ararat grad, had a nice game-winner for Bates.

We're starting to get a little bit of clarity in B North Boys, as Old Town has opened up a little bit of a lead in the Heal Points. They're 12-0 and you don't need me to tell you they'll likely be the 1 seed.

They'll go to Ellsworth to face the Eagles, winners of 7 of their last 8. But that 1 loss? You guessed it. Old Town, a 64-52 game on January 4th.

They are in a packed, 3-way race for the 2 seed, with Caribou lurking.

Thanks to the Tourney Odds, we can see that Orono, despite being 2nd at the moment, probably won't stay there. Ellsworth, though, has a real shot at the 2 and, more importantly, staying out of that 4/5 game and Old Town's side of the bracket.

A win today would do a LOT for that goal.

The Model likes their chances.

The Model's predictions for the rest of today's games are after the jump.