Where Things Stand

One week to go in the regular season. Do you know where your team will land?

Here's what you're looking at. Using the Tournament Odds, this simulates the rest of the schedule 1,000 times, looking for as many combinations of Heal Points as possible, with a preference on how likely they are. It then assigns a percentage of how often a team lands on a certain seed.

For this, I'm going to call anything that's over 95% (more or less), so it's possible one of these might not come through. Crazier things have happened.

If anyone's locked into a seed or it's down to 2-3 teams, I'll list those. But if it looks like this, I'm just going to tell you how many teams are in the mix.

These take a LONG time to run, so if I found your score after I started running this, it won't be reflected here. Also let me know if anything looks weird, because typos do slip through.

If you want more detail, sign up for a paid subscription and look at the Tourney Odds. They're awesome. It'll answer a lot of your questions! Plus you'll get good Heal Points, the Media Guide for the Tournament, and much, much more.

Here we go!

AA North Boys

In: 7 (Oxford Hills, Lewiston, Portland, Cheverus, Hampden, Edward Little, Windham)

Out: 0

1: Oxford Hills

2/3: Lewiston/Portland

4: Cheverus

5: Hampden

6: Edward Little

7/8: Windham/Bangor/Deering

AA North Girls

In: 7 (Cheverus, Oxford Hills, Bangor, Windham, Hampden, Edward Little, Deering)

Out: 0

1-3: Cheverus/Oxford Hills/Bangor

4-5: Windham/Hamdpen

6-7: Edward Little/Deering

8-9: Lewiston/Portland

AA South Boys

In: 8 (Everyone)

Out: 0

1: TA

2/3: Gorham/SoPo

4: Bonny Eagle

5/6: Noble/Sanford

7: Scarborough

8: Massabesic

AA South Girls

In: 7 (Everyone)

Out: 0

1: TA

2/3: Sanford/Gorham

4: Scarborough

5: SoPo

6: Bonny Eagle

7: Noble

A North Boys

In: 7 (Brewer, Nokomis, Skowhegan, Cony, Mount Blue, Lawrence Messo)

Out: Gardiner

1: Brewer

2: Nokomis/Skow

3/4: Nokomis/Skow/Mt. Blue/Cony

5-7: Skow/Mt. Blue/Cony/Lawrence/Messo

8: Camden/Erskine

A North Girls

In: 8 (Gardiner, Lawrence, Cony, Camden, Nokomis, Skowhegan, Erskine, Brewer)

Out: 2 (Mt. Blue, Messo)

1: Gardiner

2/3: Lawrence/Cony

4: Camden

5: Nokomis

6: Skowhegan

7: Erskine

8: Brewer

A South Boys

In: 7 (Falmouth, Westbrook, GNG, Marshwood, Greely, Fryeburg, Kennebun)

Out: Morse

1: Falmouth/Westbrook

2-4: Falmouth/Westbrook/GNG/Marshwood

5-7: Greely/Fryeburg/Kennebunk

8: Mt. Ararat/Brunswick/Freeport/Biddeford

A South Girls

In: 5 (Brunswick, Mt. Ararat, GNG, Marshwood, Greely)

Out: 3 (Kennebunk, Morse, Biddeford)

1: Brunswick

2/3: Mt. Ararat/GNG

4-9: Marshwood/Falmouth/Greely/Freeport/Westbrook/Fryeburg

B North Boys

In: 8 (Ellsworth, Orono, Winslow, Old Town, Foxcroft, Caribou, Mount View, WA)

Out: Belfast

1: Ellsworth

2-4: Orono/Winslow/Old Town/Foxcroft/Caribou

5/6: Old Town/Foxcroft/Caribou

7-12: 8 teams

B North Girls

In: 10 (Old Town, Caribou, Ellsworth, Houlton, MDI, WA, Foxcroft, Presque Isle, MCI, Hermon)

Out: 4 (Waterville, Winslow, Orono, Bucksport)

1: Old Town

2: Caribou

3: Ellsworth

4: Houlton/MDI/WA/Foxcroft

5-13: Yikes (10 teams)

B South Boys

In: 8 (Oceanside, Yarmouth, Spruce, Medomak, York, Maranacook, Lincoln, Cape)

Out: 2 (Poland/Oak Hill)

1-3: Oceanside/Yarmouth/Spruce

4/5: Medomak/York/Maranacook

6: York/Maranacook/Lincoln/Cape

7-10: 7 teams

B South Girls

In: 7 (Oceanside, Spruce, Wells, Medomak, Lake Region, Maranacook, Yarmouth)

Out: Poland

1/2: Oceanside/Spruce

3: Wells/Oceanside/Spruce

4/5: Medomak/Lake Region/Maranacook

6: Lake Region/Maranacook

7-10: 6 teams

C North Boys

In: 8 (Dexter, Calais, Fort Kent, Lee, Woodland, Fort Fairfield, GSA, Penobscot Valley)

Out: 2 (Central Aroostook, Narraguagus)

1/2: Dexter/Calais

3: Fort Kent

4-13: 13 teams (kind of a mess)

C North Girls

In: 7 (Dexter, Penobscot Valley, Hodgdon, Central, Mattanawcook, Calais, Fort Kent)

Out: 3 (Searsport, Lee Academy, Madawaska)

1: Dexter

2-4: Penobscot Valley/Hodgdon/Central

5: Mattanawcook

6: Calais

7-13: 9 teams

C South Boys

In: 9 (Dirigo, OOB, Monmouth, Richmond, Mount Abram, Boothbay, Carrabec, Waynflete, Madison)

Out: 3 (Buckfield, Telstar, Wiscasset)

1: Dirigo

2-4: OOB/Monmouth/Richmond/Mount Abram

5/6: Monmouth/Richmond/Mount Abram/Boothbay/Carrabec

7-13: 9 teams

C South Girls

In: 11 (NYA, OOB, Kents Hill, Hall-Dale, Richmond, Monmouth, Winthrop, Carrabec, Madison, Traip, Sacopee Valley)

Out: 4 (St. Dom, Buckfield, Boothbay, Wiscasset)

1: NYA

2/3: OOB/Kents Hill/HD

4-13: 11 teams

D North Boys

In: 8 (Southern Aroostook, Machias, Bangor Christian, Schenck, Easton, Katahdin, Jonesport, Wisdom)

Out: 0

1: Southern Aroostook

2-4: Machias/Bangor Christian/Schenck/Easton

3-6: Machias/Deer Isle/Katahdin/East Grand/Jonesport

7/8: Katahdin/Jonesport/Wisdom

9/10: Van Buren/Ashland/Shead/Deer Isle

D North Girls

In: 6 (Southern Aroostook, Wisdom, Machias, Deer Isle, Katahdin, East Grand)

Out: Van Buren

1: Southern Aroostook

2: Wisdom

3-6: Machias/Deer Isle/Katahdin/East Grand/Jonesport

7-10: East Grand/Jonesport/Ashland/Washburn/Schenck/Easton

D South Boys

In: 7 (Forest Hills, Valley, Seacoast, Islesboro, Greenville, Vinalhaven, Temple)

Out: 0

1: Forest Hills

2: Valley

3-5: Seacoast/Islesboro/Greenville

6: Greenville/Vinalhaven/Temple

7: Temple, probably

8: North Haven?/Pine Tree

D South Girls

In: 5 (Valley, Forest Hills, Seacoast Christian, Pine Tree, Vinalhaven)

Out: 0

1: Valley

2/3: Forest Hills/Seacoast

4: Pine Tree

5-8: Everyone else