The Stax Index was back on course last night, finding a thriller at Thornton Academy, as the Trojans stormed back down 20-4 to beat Gorham 68-63. Will Davies led TA with 23 points and 7 assists, including this beauty:
The Model had TA winning this by 15+, because it was underselling a Gorham team that hasn't gotten into the teeth of its schedule yet. These things happen in December. Or maybe it's just really confident in TA, who moves to #2 in the Power Rankings. Gorham, for their efforts, moves into the Top 20, one of the many benefits of a system that rewards teams for losing close games to good teams.
We (finally) got our internet back this morning, so I'm finally able to upload the massive data visualization that is the complete Tourney Odds--boys and girls.
This will look a lot better on a computer, where it'll tell you not only the chances your team makes the tourney, but where they'll probably land in the seeding. If you're a coach, you've probably already got this bookmarked.
If we go to B South Girls, we see that Oceanside gets a bye to the Expo in 100% of simulations and they're the 1 seed in 65.8% of them. That doesn't mean they're a lock, though, as the Model's simulations has their worst-case scenario as 12-6 and as low as the 6 seed.
Of course, they could theoretically lose their next 12 games and in that very unlikely scenario, they would miss the tournament. So they haven't clinched. It looks like 8 wins is probably a clinch for them.
It is showing the Bangor girls as clinching, but on closer inspection it isn't finding any scenarios where they lose out, so I'm going to hold off on calling that one, as it might find those tomorrow.
The Tourney Odds page is your new obsession and will definitely go behind the paywall tomorrow.
If you're looking for a good game tonight, you've got a lot of choices. There's another TA/Gorham game, as the girls battle it out in Gorham. The Hampden girls take on very good Cheverus team. There's even a couple of Class C games, including the OOB & Richmond boys.
In all, there are 8 games with a Stax Index over 80. But there can only be one.
Ellsworth is rolling, with quality wins over #56 Mount View and a 2-point win on the road against #13 Old Town on Tuesday. They are 5th in the state in games against the Top 25, with a %Perfect of 64.22%, even if it was just the one game.
Orono hasn't played anyone in the Top 25. They own a nice 11-point win on the road against #43 Foxcroft Academy. So while they've been the more dominant team this year, relative to their schedule, the Model would like to see how they fare against the top teams in the state.
They'll get their chance today. Winner stays perfect and in control of B North.
In the Tourney Odds, one of these teams is the 1 seed 96.8% of the time.
The rest of the schedule is after the jump.